Reality Check: Dispelling Some Key Illusions About Myanmar

“Will the junta collapse this year?” It’s a big question, one that Myanmar people have asked each other at the start of every year since the coup in 2021. The people of Myanmar continue to dream of a day when they will be rid of the military dictatorship. To date, reality has fallen short of their hopes. Could things be different in 2025?

Who knows? The junta’s imminent collapse is such a seductive idea, it’s hard not to join the chorus of predictions, isn’t it? Some of the more precise forecasts of its demise have proven overly optimistic, even illusory—but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen.