In or Out of Uniform, Min Aung Hlaing Remains Chief Obstacle to Peace in Myanmar

Amid much pomp and ceremony last Friday, Myanmar’s newly elected parliamentarians made former military chief Min Aung Hlaing the country’s next president. The majority was overwhelming: 429 of 584 eligible MPs in the joint sitting of the upper and lower houses of Parliament. He will now govern the country for the next five years, formally ending the direct military rule that followed his illegal seizure of power in February 2021.

But while this circus unfolded in the capital Naypyitaw, most of the country was uninterested. “No one cares what’s happening in Parliament or who will be president,” said a Yangon taxi driver on condition of anonymity. “Nothing will change: the military will remain in charge. It’s a selection, not an election.”

The laborious process fooled no one: first three vice presidents were elected by the respective sections of the legislative structure—the upper and lower houses and the 25 percent bloc of appointed military representatives—all then having their qualifications scrutinized by a parliamentary committee, before duly anointing Min Aung Hlaing as president.

RelatedPosts

Loyal Puppet: How Ye Win Oo Became 1st Intelligence Chief to Lead Myanmar Military

Loyal Puppet: How Ye Win Oo Became 1st Intelligence Chief to Lead Myanmar Military

April 2, 2026 628

Magwe Resistance Tensions Mount as Myanmar’s NUG Moves to Control Oilfields

Magwe Resistance Tensions Mount as Myanmar’s NUG Moves to Control Oilfields

April 2, 2026 738

Examining the Role of Women in Kachin Resistance

Examining the Role of Women in Kachin Resistance

April 2, 2026 785

The voting for parliamentary candidates in three phases last December and January was dismissed by many inside the country and abroad as a giant sham, leaving little doubt that this was all part of the then commander-in-chief’s attempt to legitimize his control of the country and realize his obsessive ambition to be president.

“Min Aung Hlaing will certainly be president,” a member of the winning Union Solidarity and Development party (USDP), the military’s proxy outfit, told me at the start of the campaigning last year. And a former Western diplomat who was based in Yangon before the coup added, “It’s been a charade from start to finish.”

“This will not represent a change of any sort,” said Yangon-based economic analyst Ko Maung. “These military men may be changing their uniforms for civvies, but their priorities, policies and plans won’t change: they’ve virtually destroyed the country already and are clueless how to climb out this economic abyss.”

But in Myanmar’s business community, there are some who seem hopeful, if not sanguine, that this new, quasi-civilian government under Min Aung Hlaing may prove everyone wrong, just as President Thein Sein’s government did after the election of 2010. That too had been dismissed by the democratic opposition and most of the world as a sham. But instead of continuing military control, Thein Sein reached out to the international community, intent on rolling back sanctions by fully engaging regionally and globally. He introduced limited democratic reforms and tried to liberalize the economy—and crucially tried to engage the country’s ethnic rebel armies with the idea of a national ceasefire and a dialogue that could lead to national reconciliation. It was fraught and experimental, but it did mark a new era in Myanmar’s political and economic development.

“Thein Sein and his senior ministers frequently confessed that they quickly understood they knew very little about democracy, democratic government and a market economy as and when they opened both the political and economic doors,” said a Myanmar businessman who had extensive dealings with both the Thein Sein administration and the subsequent government of the pro-democracy icon Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.

“Thein Sein opened not only the political and economic doors, but also internal discussions and communication channels,” he said. “Freeing up the media environment was a key component of his approach. Min Aung Hlaing on the other hand, doesn’t seem to be opening but increasing his tight control of everything, including stepping up surveillance and increased censorship of social media posts.”

Arbitrarily switching from army chief to president is a customary tactic of dictators the world over who want to continue to rule and find some kind of international legitimacy.

“Min Aung Hlaing has no intention of sharing power, allowing democratic reforms or liberalizing the economy,” said a Myanmar academic who declined to be identified. “He does not trust anyone—especially those around him. He knows he’s widely disliked even within the military. That’s why he must have 110 percent control of everything.”

Unfortunately, Min Aung Hlaing also lacks the vision to implement the political and economic reforms necessary to regenerate the country’s development, said an entrepreneur involved in agribusiness.

“Min Aung Hlaing was a compromise candidate when chosen to replace then army chief Than Shwe, neither smart nor visionary,” the businessman reflected. “Now we desperately need someone who has a broad business approach, not the narrow attitude based on protecting the ‘family business’ that we currently have.”

The tranquility of Naypyitaw stands in stark contrast to much of the rest of the country, which is being torn apart by violence and bloodshed. “Peace is essential for the country to return to stability,” a USDP MP acknowledged—and claimed that President Min Aung Hlaing, the government and the party are all committed to finding a solution.

But a leading member of the Chin National Organization, Salai William Chin, is having none of it. “They say they want peace, but their actions are counter to that,” he told me last week.

“They continue to relentlessly bomb the villages, launch air strikes on schools, places of worship and public areas … they continue to kill hundreds of civilians, especially women and children. This is unacceptable, we cannot trust these guys. They must stop this carnage before anything else can happen.”

“We will never negotiate with Min Aung Hlaing, he has too much blood on his hands,” confirms democracy activist Dr. Sasa. Formerly a member of the shadow National Unity Government (NUG), Dr Sasa now runs his own pro-democratic initiative, the Institute for Peace and Federal Democracy, and his attitude stands for most of the resistance.

Clearly, then, Min Aung Hlaing remains the chief impediment to any ceasefire, negotiated end to the civil war, and democratic reform. By becoming president, he is not signalling change nor giving hope that the country’s civil war and political impasse can be solved through dialogue. But is there hope of more international engagement, especially with regional bloc ASEAN?

Thailand, for one, is keen to engage with Naypyitaw: engagement, but not recognition, according to a source in the Thai government. Most other ASEAN members seem to have adopted this approach. The same source said Min Aung Hlaing had indicated recently that he is also keen to engage ASEAN, so this is likely to be high on the agenda of the new Myanmar government.

Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow is currently negotiating with the authorities in Naypyitaw to visit again soon and meet the “new” leader, with whom he believes he has a good rapport. But Sihasak has also asked to meet Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, imprisoned incommunicado since the coup, on any future visit, he confirmed in an exchange of social media messages.

Most diplomats and academics in the region believe China holds the key to future developments. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi plans to visit Naypyitaw later in April, according to Myanmar military sources. Beijing has already publicly endorsed the new president—but still has major reservations about the future.

It is well known that Beijing would have preferred Min Aung Hlaing to stand down and a recognized civilian—though former military figure—to become president. Its preference was reported to have been USDP chief Khin Yi. This would have marked a more tangible shift towards “civilianization” by echoing the Thein Sein days, when the army commander and architect of the 2010 election, Than Shwe, made way by retiring. Chinese President Xi Jinping is known to favor party rather than military control of the political power structure, like in China.

As for Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, a succession of Chinese envoys have tried to see her when visiting the capital over the last five years, but all were rebuffed. Given growing international concern for her health, the hope is that the Chinese foreign minister or his Thai counterpart could be given access. According to diplomatic sources, Myanmar’s Foreign Minister Than Swe hinted to the UN special envoy on Myanmar, Julie Bishop, a few weeks ago that the country’s leaders understood the need to reevaluate their attitude toward “humanitarian concerns” involving the opposition leader.

So all eyes will be on future international visitors to Naypyitaw to see what breakthroughs they might achieve. The Chinese have long told Myanmar’s military regime it should release the imprisoned democratic leader. But a humanitarian visit would be a start, and might reflect a softening of the authorities’ current intransigence.

Still, there is a danger of reading too much into any move by the new government, warned a retired Asian diplomat who covered Myanmar for decades. “Nothing short of her unconditional release is acceptable,” he added.