“The Waning of Myanmar’s Sovereignty” A Geopolitical Analysis of Post‑2021 Dependence on China”

By Maung Maung Myint

Abstract

Following the attempted coup in February 2021, Myanmar’s foreign policy posture has undergone a radical transformation. A country that historically practiced Non‑alignment and Strategic Hedging has now veered toward Asymmetric Dependency on the People’s Republic of China under the State Security and Peace Commission (formerly the State Administration Council). This article argues that Myanmar is transitioning from a “Hedging State” to a “Client State,” resembling the contemporary Russia–Belarus model. This shift is driven not by political doctrine but by the military regime’s need for survival. China is exploiting this vulnerability to secure critical geostrategic assets—including access to the Indian Ocean to mitigate its “Malacca Dilemma.”

Introduction: The Failure of Strategic Hedging

For 63 of the 78 years since independence, Myanmar has been ruled by military governments or military‑backed administrations. Throughout this period, these governments rigidly adhered to a non‑aligned foreign policy to avoid becoming a pawn in superpower competition.

The “Open Door Policy” pursued between 2011 and 2021 represented a strategic effort to reduce the Chinese influence that had taken root during the earlier SPDC/SLORC era. It expanded international economic partnerships and improved relations with the West, ASEAN, and other Asian nations, thereby moderately reducing Myanmar’s political and economic reliance on China.