Regime Responds to Natural Disasters by Increasing Violence Against Civilians

As desperate communities across southern Myanmar endure severe storms and flooding, the regime has responded not with humanitarian relief, but by significantly accelerating its campaign of violence.

In the deep south, record-breaking rainfall since the weekend has submerged over 60 villages in Tanintharyi Region’s Dawei District, leaving at least 13 dead and 30 missing. Yet, rather than easing military operations or providing aid to enable life-saving disaster response, the regime has exploited the chaos, escalating its brutal air raids against civilian targets nationwide.

The military’s unyielding stance was on stark display in Rakhine State on Monday, where a junta warplane dropped two 500-pound bombs on crowded market stalls near the Kisapanadi Bridge in Kyauktaw town. The strike killed 50 vendors and pedestrians and wounded 58 others, leaving 22 in critical condition. Simultaneous strikes on Minbya Township and Thandwe Township’s Ngapali Beach left nine more injured.

The Arakan Army (AA) denounced the attacks as deliberate war crimes and pledged direct, swift retaliation against the commanders and units responsible.

Meanwhile, in northern Sagaing Region near the Kachin State border, regime forces deployed a 300-strong infantry column from the 33rd Light Infantry Division supported by airstrikes to recapture a strategic trade corridor. In Indaw Township, warplanes unleashed roughly 20 bombs on villages located on routes being used as detours amid the fighting, striking stranded cargo trucks and killing five civilians while wounding eight others.

Bangkok’s naive engagement

Amid these atrocities, junta military commander-in-chief General Ye Win Oo doubled down at the Yangon Regional Command, threatening harsh punishment for troops who commit “treason, military misconduct and drug offenses,” in a desperate bid to enforce internal discipline as morale collapses under severe battlefield losses. The general’s warning highlights growing internal paranoia that restless and resentful officers and soldiers are passing intelligence to resistance forces. Since the 2021 coup, thousands of military personnel have defected or deserted, leading the regime to rely heavily on forcibly recruited conscripts.

The junta’s total refusal to yield exposes the sharp failure of regional diplomatic outreach. Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow has faced strong criticism for showing lenience toward Naypyitaw as part of what he calls Bangkok’s “calibrated re-engagement” strategy, which included junta chief Min Aung Hlaing’s recent visit to Thailand.

While insisting that Thailand pressed the regime to reduce violence, release political prisoners and allow humanitarian assistance to enter the country, Sihasak openly admitted the Myanmar dictator made no commitments to those outcomes whatsoever. Instead of demanding immediate accountability, Sihasak brushed off the regime’s defiance, stating: “In diplomacy, sometimes we don’t really need commitment on the spot. Give them time to think about it.”

Critics argue that this passive posture borders on appeasement. By granting the military leader high-profile diplomatic legitimacy without securing a single operational concession or pause in air raids, Thailand’s soft-touch diplomacy gives the unyielding regime vital international cover while the civilian body counts continue to surge.