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Commentary: Be careful about predicting downfall of Myanmar's 'failed junta' as it enters fifth year in power

Writer's picture: Saw Kyaw OoSaw Kyaw Oo


BRISBANE: Activists, pundits and even some academic commentators have described the military power grab in Myanmar on Feb 1, 2021 as a “failed coup”. It is not always clear precisely what they mean by this, but the inescapable fact remains that the self-styled State Administration Council (SAC) led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing is still in power after four tumultuous years.


The regime has lost large swathes of territory around the country’s periphery, including control of two regional military commands, in the north and west of the country. It is under increasing challenge from ethnic armed organisations and forces owing allegiance to the shadow National Unity Government (NUG). The country’s economy is in ruins; nearly 35 per cent of the population lives in poverty and more than 3.5 million people have been displaced.

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