Why our hope lies in unity, not election (Interview with Shan political analyst Sai Wansai)

Operation 1027, launched by the Three Brotherhood Alliance, a coalition of three ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), marked a significant shift in the political and military landscape of Shan State. Two of the Alliance’s members, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), had previously seized large swathes of territories in northern Shan State. However, pressure from the Chinese government, combined with large-scale counteroffensives by the junta, has forced the TNLA and MNDAA to relinquish parts of their gains.

On October 27 and 28, Palaung ethnic armed group TNLA and junta representatives met in Kunming City, in talks brokered by the Chinese government, resulting in a ceasefire agreement. Before the deal was reached, due to massive junta offensives, the TNLA had already lost control of Naungcho (Nawnghkio), Kyaukme, and Thibaw (Hsipaw) in northern Shan State, which were towns it had captured during Operation 1027.

Under the ceasefire agreement, the TNLA also pledged to withdraw from Momeik (Mongmit), a town in northern Shan State, as well as from Mogok in neighboring Mandalay Region. The TNLA has agreed to hand over these towns to the junta, raising questions about whether this move is a step toward expanding junta control ahead of the junta-led election in December.

Shan Herald Agency for News (SHAN) reporter Sai Hseng Leng interviewed Shan political analyst Sai Wansai to discuss how recent developments could affect both the political and military landscape of Shan State.