What conditions would make the safe, voluntary, and dignified return of Muslim refugees from Bangladesh possible?

The safe, voluntary, and dignified return of Muslim refugees from Bangladesh to Arakan requires overcoming at least three categories of interrelated challenges. First, security challenges remain the most immediate obstacle. Frequent junta air strikes and navy artillery shelling continue to target areas in northern Rakhine State, creating ongoing risks of death, injury, and displacement for returning populations.

Additionally, attacks by extremist armed groups such as ARSA against local communities including both Rakhine and Muslim civilians further destabilize the region and create an environment of fear and unpredictability. Until active hostilities cease and civilians are protected from all armed actors, any return process cannot be considered safe or voluntary, as refugees would be returning to active conflict zones rather than secure homes.

Second, emergency humanitarian and development challenges must be addressed to ensure that returned refugees can sustain themselves and their families. The conflict has destroyed housing, schools, clinics, roads, and markets across much of northern Rakhine State. Returning refugees require immediate humanitarian assistance including food, shelter, clean water, and medical care upon arrival.

Beyond emergency aid, long-term livelihood opportunities such as access to agricultural land, fishing rights, employment, and small business support must be restored or created. Without viable economic prospects, returnees would face destitution, potentially leading to secondary displacement or reliance on humanitarian aid indefinitely. Community development initiatives, including rebuilding infrastructure and restoring public services, are also essential to support both returning refugees and host communities, fostering social cohesion rather than competition over scarce resources.

Third, border trades and governance challenges must be addressed to support basic livelihood incomes and to guarantee returnees certain rights and define their role in local governance. The territory to which refugees would return is currently under the administrative control of the United League of Arakan/Arakan Army (ULA/AA), which has established its own judicial, taxation, and administrative systems.

At the same time, opening regular trade relations between Bangladesh and Arakan can create confidence for the returning refugees that they have a future on another side of the border. Regarding the governance issue, returning refugees also need clear legal and governance guarantees regarding their rights to participation and representation in local administration including access to education and healthcare, and equal treatment before the law. The ULA-led Arakkha government on its part has included several Muslims in its administration, party organs and para-military and policy bodies and increasing participation and inclusion are also possible.

Until these three categories of challenges security, humanitarian and development, and border trade and governance are demonstrably overcome, the safe, voluntary, and dignified return of Muslim refugees from Bangladesh will remain unlikely.