ULA/AA controls 92.6% of Arakan as fighting intensifies: ISP-Myanmar
DMG Newsroom
10 September 2026, Ponnagyun
The United League of Arakan/Arakan Army (ULA/AA) controls 92.6 percent of Arakan State as well as Paletwa Township in neighbouring Chin State, according to a recent assessment by the Institute for Strategy and Policy-Myanmar (ISP-Myanmar), even as the Myanmar military steps up operations against AA-held territory.
ISP-Myanmar said the ULA/AA launched its major offensive in Arakan on November 13, 2023, and has since established control over most of the state.
The assessment was included in an ISP-Myanmar study published on August 11 examining ULA/AA administration, territorial control and the challenges it faces beyond its military gains.
According to ISP-Myanmar, the ULA/AA established the Arakan People’s Revolutionary Government (APRG) to administer areas under its control and, since May 2025, has organised its territory into eight administrative districts, including Paletwa.
The assessment highlights the dramatic transformation of Arakan’s political and military landscape since fighting resumed in November 2023. The AA has captured most townships in the state, while the military retains key footholds including Sittwe, Kyaukphyu and Manaung.
Despite its greatly reduced territorial presence, the military continues to pose a significant security threat through ground offensives backed by air, artillery and naval power.
Fighting along the Sittwe-Ponnagyun border remained intense as of September 9 after military troops crossed Minchaung Bridge from Sittwe and launched an offensive into AA-controlled Ponnagyun Township on September 4.
The AA subsequently reinforced its forces and mounted a counteroffensive. The military has used artillery from positions in Sittwe, naval fire support and airstrikes during the fighting, according to DMG’s latest reporting.
Military and political observers told DMG that the military appears to be seeking a foothold in Ponnagyun that could provide a route for further operations into AA-controlled areas. Thousands of civilians from Ponnagyun and Rathedaung townships have fled their homes because of the fighting and bombardment.
Military pressure is not confined to the Sittwe-Ponnagyun front. DMG has reported naval and ground operations in Kyaukphyu, while the military has also increased naval activity and conducted repeated airstrikes around Thandwe and Gwa in southern Arakan.
The renewed fighting has also increased risks to civilian and cultural sites. On September 4, air and artillery attacks damaged the historic Gu Wa Pagoda in Ponnagyun Township, according to residents interviewed by DMG. The site, located beside the Sittwe-Ponnagyun road, dates back about 450 years.
The current situation illustrates the gap between territorial control and security on the ground. While the ULA/AA has established authority over more than 90 percent of Arakan and is developing administrative institutions in areas under its control, the military retains the ability to strike those territories and challenge their security from its remaining strongholds.
The next phase of the conflict is therefore likely to be shaped not only by whether the AA can capture the remaining military-held areas, but also by whether the ULA/AA can consolidate governance, protect civilians and maintain security across the extensive territory already under its administration.
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