The Uncertain Future of Myanmar’s Rakhine State

What is the future of Myanmar’s Rakhine State? In a year of unprecedented military gains, the Arakan Army/United League of Arakan (AA/ULA) has achieved what four years ago would have been inconceivable: the liberation of an entire state by force of arms. As the AA has driven out almost all State Administration Council (SAC) forces from north to south, laid siege to the state capital Sittwe and the Kyaukphyu naval base, and is penetrating into Magwe, western Bago and the Irrawaddy Delta, threatening the military defense factory complex, 2025 may be the year Rakhine State becomes independent. This will likely be the first irredentist success of a non-state armed group since the Wa and Kokang established their autonomous zones in 1989, followed soon after by the Mong La enclave.