The Arithmetic of Atrocity: Air Power and Civilian Suffering in Arakan

Aung Marm Oo

On International Human Rights Day, December 10, 2025, a Myanmar military airstrike struck Mrauk-U Public Hospital in Arakan State, reportedly killing more than 30 people, including patients, caregivers, and civilians seeking medical treatment. The symbolism was stark: on a day dedicated to human dignity and fundamental rights, one of Arakan’s most important civilian sanctuaries came under attack.

Yet the strike on Mrauk-U Hospital was not an isolated tragedy. It was part of a broader pattern that has emerged since the escalation of conflict in late 2023, a pattern of repeated airstrikes hitting villages, schools, hospitals, detention facilities, monasteries, and displacement sites across Arakan.

To understand the scale of the crisis, one must look beyond individual incidents and examine what can be called the arithmetic of atrocity: the cumulative human, social, and political consequences of a war increasingly fought from the sky.

According to data compiled by Development Media Group (DMG), Arakan has witnessed at least 15 mass-casualty incidents since November 2023 in which 10 or more civilians were killed or injured in a single attack. These incidents have not been confined to conventional battlefields.

In March 2024, an airstrike on Thardar (Muslim) Village in Minbya Township reportedly killed 22 civilians and injured 29 others. In September of the same year, a former Border Guard Police battalion in Maungdaw housing prisoners of war was struck from the air, killing around 50 detainees.

The violence intensified throughout 2025. In January, an airstrike on Kyauk Ni Maw Village in Ramree Township reportedly killed 26 civilians. In September, a private school in Thayet Tapin Village, Kyauktaw Township, was bombed, killing students and teachers. Three months later came the attack on Mrauk-U Public Hospital.

The pattern has continued into 2026. In January, bombs hit the Chaung Tu detention center in Kyauktaw Township, killing prisoners of war and family members. In February, Yoe Ngu Village in Ponnagyun Township suffered another deadly air raid. Numerous additional strikes have been reported across northern and central Arakan.

These incidents reflect a significant transformation in the conflict. As the Myanmar military has steadily lost territorial control across much of Arakan, large-scale ground operations have become increasingly difficult. Unable to regain substantial territory, the military has relied more heavily on aircraft, drones, and long-range artillery.

What began as a territorial war has increasingly evolved into an air war.

At the same time, a new political reality has emerged. Across most of Arakan, the United League of Arakan/Arakan Army (ULA/AA) now administers local governance, taxation, dispute resolution, policing, and public services. The military, meanwhile, retains a limited presence in a handful of strategic locations, including Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, Manaung, and several military installations, while continuing to project power through airstrikes.

This has created a unique paradox.

On the ground, the ULA/AA increasingly governs. In the air, the military continues to punish.

For civilians, this means daily life may be administered by one authority while remaining vulnerable to violence from another. Villages may function, markets may reopen, and local governance may operate, yet no community can feel entirely safe beneath contested skies.

The consequences extend far beyond casualty figures.

Agricultural production has been disrupted by displacement, insecurity, and contamination from landmines and unexploded ordnance. Many farmers remain unable to safely return to their fields. Fishing communities face growing difficulties, while transportation and trade have become more expensive and uncertain.

Healthcare systems have also come under severe strain. Hospitals and clinics face shortages of medicine, equipment, and personnel. The destruction of medical facilities has further reduced access to essential services for thousands of civilians.

Education has suffered as well. Schools have been damaged, closed, or relocated, while teachers and students continue to live under the threat of airstrikes. For many children in Arakan, the sound of aircraft has become associated with fear rather than normal life.

Even where active fighting has diminished, danger remains. Landmines and explosive remnants of war continue to kill and injure civilians attempting to return home, cultivate farmland, or travel between villages. The end of combat does not necessarily mean the return of safety.

The consequences of the conflict also extend beyond Myanmar’s borders.

Bangladesh continues to host more than one million Muslim/Rohingya refugees, while ongoing insecurity in Arakan undermines prospects for voluntary and safe repatriation. Meanwhile, India faces increasing challenges in advancing major initiatives such as the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project, much of whose corridor now passes through areas under substantial ULA/AA influence.

As regional powers pursue trade, connectivity, and security objectives, they are increasingly confronted with a practical reality: effective authority in much of western Myanmar no longer corresponds neatly with internationally recognized state structures.

This reality has important implications for humanitarian access, border security, regional trade, and future political settlements.

The international response remains inadequate to the scale of civilian suffering. Greater efforts are needed to restrict the military’s ability to conduct aerial attacks against civilian-populated areas, expand humanitarian access, support local documentation efforts, and strengthen protections for schools, hospitals, religious institutions, and displacement sites.

Ultimately, the arithmetic of atrocity is measured not only in deaths and injuries. It is measured in destroyed schools, damaged hospitals, abandoned farms, displaced families, shrinking economic opportunities, and children growing up under the constant threat of air attack.

Arakan today presents a stark new reality: a territory where one authority increasingly governs on the ground while another continues to project violence from the sky.

The central question is no longer simply who claims sovereignty over the territory. The more urgent question is who can protect civilians, sustain essential services, and create conditions for recovery after years of conflict.

Until meaningful measures are taken to reduce civilian suffering and address the underlying drivers of war, the numbers that define Arakan’s arithmetic of atrocity will continue to grow not only in lives lost, but also in opportunities destroyed and futures diminished.

Aung Marm Oo is the editor-in-chief and executive director of Development Media Group (DMG), a news agency based in Rakhine. He faces charges under Myanmar’s Unlawful Associations Act and has been in hiding since May 2019.