Spring Revolution – Mizzima Daily Notes

12 August 2026

The Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar (IIMM) says the frequency and severity of war crimes and crimes against humanity have continued to increase since the military seized power in Myanmar, according to a report submitted to the UN Human Rights Council.

At the same time, heavy rainfall, rising dam levels and swollen rivers are continuing to cause flooding in Sagaing Region and other parts of central Myanmar, disrupting civilian life and relief operations.

Military and Humanitarian Situation

Local residents said junta forces carried out three airstrikes with a fighter jet on a shop-house in Kwantaing village, Khin-U Township, Sagaing Region, on the afternoon of 11 August. No people were reported injured, but a cattle shed was damaged and one cow was wounded.

In Rakhine State, at least 10 civilians were killed and eight others injured when the military bombed Kyaukgyi village in Thandwe Township on the afternoon of 10 August, according to the Arakan Army’s information department.

In Brisbane, Australia, an event marking the 38th anniversary of the 8888 Uprising was held on the evening of 8 August together with a screening of the revolutionary film “Ray.”

Flooding and Relief

Floodwaters have begun to recede in Kalaw, which was inundated by heavy rain and mountain runoff, but residents said mud and debris left behind by the flooding are still being cleared.

A member of the Shwebo People’s Defence Force was swept away and killed while carrying out flood rescue work in western Shwebo Township, Sagaing Region. The main base of Battalion No. 2 of the Kyaukse District People’s Defence Force was also almost completely submerged, with floodwaters reaching the roofs of shelters, a battalion official told Mizzima.

Nearly 15,000 people from around 3,000 households have also been affected by flooding in Myinmu Township. Flooding continues along the Mu River downstream from the Thaphanseik Dam, with water entering parts of Taze, Kanbalu, Ye-U, Khin-U and Depayin townships, according to the Khin-U Township True News Information Team.

Myanmar Affairs and Regional Security

The impact of Myanmar’s conflict is no longer confined within the country’s borders and is increasingly developing into a multidimensional regional security issue involving border security, online scam networks, humanitarian crises, public health, transboundary river pollution and regional connectivity.

In Thailand, the spillover from Myanmar’s conflict and cross-border problems can be seen in displacement, narcotics, online scam networks, haze pollution, water contamination and broader security concerns.

Developments in Thailand

Thailand’s Office of the National Water Resources has forecast that the Mekong River could rise by around 0.5 metres over the next five days. Residents living along the river in parts of Nakhon Phanom and Mukdahan provinces have been warned to prepare for possible flooding.

Security has been tightened at Montfort College in Chiang Mai after a student allegedly threatened in a LINE group chat to carry out a shooting at the school. Thailand’s National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission also warned media organisations not to overuse unverified information, graphic images or CCTV footage when reporting on the Nonthaburi school shooting and shootings at a provincial administrative organisation office.

Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul criticised police for allowing former MP Chalong Riewraeng, a suspect in the shooting death of former Nonthaburi PAO president Pol Col Thongchai Yenprasert, to be questioned without appropriate custody, and instructed authorities to handle the case effectively.

Thailand–China Trade

Thailand’s cumulative trade deficit with China from 2016 to 2026 is projected to reach 12.14 trillion baht. To reduce the deficit, Thailand has proposed that Chinese investors use more locally produced goods and raw materials, open Chinese online markets to Thai small and medium-sized enterprises, and increase investment in Thailand’s agricultural processing sector.

International Developments

Colombia: A powerful magnitude 7.4 earthquake struck on 10 August, with the reported death toll rising to 240 as of 12 August.

Russia–Ukraine: Ukrainian drones reportedly penetrated more than 600 miles into Russia and struck locations in Tatarstan, including Nizhnekamsk and the Taneco oil refinery, according to Russian regional authorities.

China: A Chinese rocket carrying a satellite exploded 90 seconds after launch on Monday night, marking a rare launch failure for a rocket type used in China’s space programme.

Syria: A Syrian court sentenced former president Bashar al-Assad and his brother Maher al-Assad to death in absentia for crimes against humanity and war crimes committed during the country’s 14-year civil war, according to the Associated Press.

United States: U.S. President Donald Trump expressed support on Monday for FIFA President Gianni Infantino, who is facing pressure over allegations related to workplace conduct and criticism over a failed private investment project.

India: Police used tear gas, batons and fire engines to disperse thousands of young protesters marching toward the state legislature in Jharkhand over alleged irregularities in government recruitment examinations, according to video footage.

Technology and Space

One of the notable astronomical events of 2026, a solar eclipse, will be visible in some parts of the world on 12 August, although it will not be directly visible from Thailand or Myanmar, according to NASA data.

Taiwan has also conducted exercises to test its ability to respond to possible internet disruptions. A major drill was held in Taichung on Monday, where internet access was deliberately “slowed” so that only basic mobile communications services remained available.

There are also concerns that if a home internet router can be remotely controlled by another person, it could pose serious risks to personal data and network security.

Sports

Brazilian defender Roger Ibañez has extended his contract with reigning Asian champions Al-Ahli until the summer of 2030, the club announced.

Myanmar Assessment

The main picture emerging from Myanmar today is that armed conflict and flooding are simultaneously placing heavy pressure on civilians. While airstrikes continue in Sagaing and Rakhine, widespread flooding across central Myanmar is also increasing humanitarian needs.

At the same time, the consequences of Myanmar’s conflict are increasingly spreading across borders and intersecting with Thailand’s security concerns, flooding, water pollution, online scam networks and social conditions.

For Myanmar, the current situation is therefore evolving beyond a military conflict alone into a broader crisis requiring simultaneous responses to flooding, humanitarian needs, border security and regional interconnectedness.