Myanmar Junta Unlikely to Regain Full ASEAN Standing Anytime Soon, Analysts Say
The Myanmar junta’s attempts to modify ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus (5PC) and fully restore its standing within the regional bloc are unlikely to succeed anytime soon, political analysts say.
Since staging the 2021 coup, the military regime has sought international legitimacy from ASEAN and the United Nations, using plans for a sham election to establish a civilian-style administration under junta chief Min Aung Hlaing.
In late October, Philippine Foreign Secretary Maria Theresa Lazaro—acting as the ASEAN Special Envoy under the Philippines' rotating chairmanship—conducted a two-day humanitarian visit to Myanmar.
Lazaro visited an internally displaced persons (IDPs) camp in Shan State's Capital, Taunggyi, on October 28 and met with the junta-appointed foreign minister, Tin Maung Swe, the following day.
During the meeting, the regime pressed to restore its representation ahead of the upcoming 49th ASEAN Summit. Statements from both sides revealed that Lazaro requested a meeting with detained democracy icon Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, but the regime denied access.
"The junta's refusal to allow Lazaro to meet Daw Aung San Suu Kyi cost it significant goodwill," said U Toe Zaw Latt, secretary of the Independent Press Council Myanmar (IPCM).
"It is far too early for ASEAN to reaccept the regime as a normal member. As long as the junta continues launching airstrikes against civilians, returning to ASEAN under the 5PC framework remains out of reach."
Although Min Aung Hlaing has visited five ASEAN member states to lobby for support, analysts expect no major shift in the bloc’s overall stance.
During the discussions, Tin Maung Swe claimed the regime was pursuing the 5PC alongside its own priorities without compromising national sovereignty. Meanwhile, Lazaro confirmed she would present her findings at the upcoming summit.
Formulated two months after the 2021 coup, the 5PC demands an immediate cessation of violence, inclusive political dialogue, humanitarian assistance, and unhindered access for the ASEAN Special Envoy to meet all stakeholders.
"The standards set by the 5PC cannot easily be altered or relaxed," said Myanmar affairs expert Dr. Sai Kyi Zin Soe. "Under current conditions, the regime will continue to struggle to regain its seat."
On the humanitarian front, Lazaro was granted access only to select junta-controlled areas where the AHA Centre and the Myanmar Red Cross Society distributed aid.
She was barred from visiting conflict-affected zones under the control of Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) and resistance forces.
Dr. Sai Kyi Zin Soe noted that while limited cooperation with the AHA Centre provides regime-friendly countries a pretext to support the junta, regional partners recognize that aid channeled through the military fails to reach those most in need.
Since the 2021 coup, ASEAN has barred Min Aung Hlaing and senior junta officials from attending high-level summits—a restriction that remains in force. Attention now turns to whether incoming chair Singapore will maintain the bloc's firm stance on the 5PC.
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