Myanmar Junta and Resistance Forces Face a Major Gap in Finding Common Ground on Future Paths, BNI Says

The peace process pursued by Myanmar’s military junta—anchored in the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) and the 2008 Constitution—and the resistance forces' overarching push to build a new federal democratic union are running on parallel tracks, creating a significant gap with little prospect of convergence, according to Burma News International (BNI).

BNI assessed the launch of its new publication, Deciphering Myanmar’s Peace Process – A Reference Guide (2025-26), held on October 14.

"The coup regime is sticking to the NCA path under the 2008 Constitution, aiming for reforms within the existing framework," said Ma Tin Tin Nyo, secretary of BNI’s Steering Committee. "Meanwhile, resistance forces are working to transform the entire political system, completely end the military’s role in politics, and establish full civilian rule."

"That’s why these two paths are like parallel lines, creating a wide gap that makes it very difficult for them to meet," she added.

While the junta continues to uphold the 2008 Constitution and engage with select Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs)—including both NCA signatories and non-signatories along the China-Myanmar border—resistance groups are focused on constructing a decentralized federal union that guarantees ethnic equality, self-determination, and the complete removal of the military from political life.

"The junta wants to hold on to the 2008 Constitution and the NCA framework, and it’s impossible to hide the fact that its actions are mainly aimed at keeping itself in power," said Ko Hninn Ko Oo, coordinator of the Myanmar Peace Monitor (MPM), BNI’s conflict-tracking and data-analysis program. "On the other hand, the resistance forces want to end the military’s involvement in future politics. This remains a core pillar of the resistance's Six Consensuses."

BNI noted that while revolutionary forces view the regime's peace talks under the 2008 framework as a tactical maneuver to gain international legitimacy, resistance groups are actively establishing embryonic federal administrative mechanisms in both highland and lowland territories.

Ma Tin Tin Nyo emphasized that bridging this political gap and determining the ultimate trajectory of these competing forces will depend on the political will of all parties concerned, effective negotiations over federal power-sharing, and the practical implementation of future agreements.

As these fundamental political differences remain irreconcilable, civilians living in conflict-affected areas continue to bear the brunt of the crisis, enduring severe human rights violations, including junta airstrikes, drone attacks, heavy artillery shelling, village burnings, and arbitrary arrests.

Photo caption: A scene from the ceremony marking the 11th anniversary of the NCA, held in Naypyitaw. Photo: Tai Freedom.