Independent research group predicts Myanmar junta’s post-election strategy for 2026

Mizzima

The Myanmar Defence and Security Institute (MDSI), an independent research organization led by defected military officers, released a strategic report on 14 January suggesting that the military junta may pursue a dual-track strategy of selective ceasefires and high-tech offensives following its 2026 government transition.

The report, titled Strategic Reforms of the Military Commission in 2025, details how the junta-run election is likely a precursor to a “rebranded” military-party rule.

MDSI analysts believe the junta will attempt to secure ceasefires with major Ethnic Revolutionary Organizations (EROs), such as the Arakan Army (AA) and the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), through a new administration scheduled to be formed in April 2026.

On the other hand, it was also stated that in 2026, the junta may conduct joint operations primarily aimed at strategically significant towns, villages, and areas.

According to the MSDI, it might specifically carry out military operations in major communication and border trade routes, as well as key areas including Rakhine, Kachin, Karen, and Chin.

“They (the junta) may target and cut off the primary supply routes of the revolutionary forces in the lowland areas. By integrating modern technology, they are likely to expand surveillance of revolutionary forces’ movements and launch offensive operations based on military intelligence,” MDSI said.

The junta’s spokesperson, Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Htun, informed media in Yangon on 11 January that the junta is now holding elections in phases amid the ongoing conflict, with a parliament to be convened in March and a new government to be formed in April.

Airstrikes and fighting are still taking place across the country, despite remarks made by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, the leader of the junta, about political dialogue and negotiations during the coup period.

According to MDSI, the junta is expected to concentrate on changes this year in order to improve the military capabilities and coordination of infantry combat units as well as any creative military tactics based on military technical advantages in ground operations.

The MDSI’s report advised the National Unity Government (NUG), EROs, and revolutionary forces to systematically study and examine the junta’s activities. It also called on them to prioritize creating necessary strategic plans, implementing integrated counter-offensives, organizing cohesive unit structures, and strengthening military resources and supply routes.

MDSI is an independent research group that focused on analysing military and security affairs, it was formed in March 2025 by Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) soldiers who oppose the 2021 military takeover.