Despite Junta's Intensified Pressure, Arakan Army Continues to Secure Victories, Says Chinese Affairs Expert

Narinjara, November 9, 2026

Despite the Myanmar military junta’s aggressive attempts to "crush" the Arakan Army (AA), the revolutionary group remains unyielding and continues to secure major victories, observed Chinese affairs expert Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw. Speaking to Narinjara, she noted that no amount of pressure can save the collapsing military regime.

Ineffective Military Pressure

Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw analyzed the situation following the ceasefires established by the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) in Northern Shan State. With hostilities halted in that region, the coup-installed military has redirected its operational focus and intensified offensives against the AA, a fellow member of the Three Brotherhood Alliance.

"With the MNDAA and TNLA entering into a ceasefire, the military is clearly concentrating its pressure on the AA," Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw stated. "It is true that they are applying pressure, but one could also argue it is entirely ineffective. No matter how hard they try to squeeze them, the AA continues to win. The military has even lost commanders in these battles."

She highlighted that the military’s primary remaining advantage lies in its air power, which it uses to conduct devastating airstrikes in AA-controlled territories, including the recent bombing of a hospital in Kawlin. However, she emphasized that these tactics yield no meaningful strategic results. Furthermore, she clarified that the military's relentless focus on the AA is not a matter of choice, but a necessity, as it cannot simply reduce its attacks now that forces are less active against the MNDAA and TNLA.

The Collapse of Junta Control

Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw asserted that the junta has reached a point of no return. "The military can only remain inside the specific towns that the MNDAA handed back to them; the surrounding areas remain entirely under MNDAA control. The same dynamics apply to the TNLA," she explained. "Because the military is no longer capable of fighting these two groups, they have been able to effectively develop their own territories. As for the AA, no matter how hard the military pushes, there is simply no saving the regime anymore."

China’s Role as a Mediator

Commenting on regional geopolitics, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw pointed out that China’s intervention carries diplomatic responsibilities. Having pressured the MNDAA and TNLA to return certain towns to prevent total junta collapse, Beijing cannot afford to ignore the ethnic resistance.

"China cannot just stand idly by; it must also speak up on behalf of these ethnic groups. If China sides solely with the military, it loses its status as an impartial mediator," she said. She added that this delicate balance likely prompted recent high-level suggestions to discuss establishing an autonomous administration for the Rakhine region.

Diplomatic Success and Future Prospects

The expert highly praised the AA's leadership, assessing that the group has maintained positive, balanced diplomatic relations with both India and China.

"The AA is highly capable in military operations and is actively engaged in local development and nation-building," she noted. Addressing concerns that proximity to India might provoke friction with Beijing, she clarified: "China and India currently enjoy good relations; they have even recently resumed flight services. When those two nations maintain a positive relationship, it creates a favorable environment for the AA."

Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw concluded that the AA's ability to resist and repel heavy military pressure signals a promising future. She emphasized that the group's ongoing triumphs are not isolated achievements, but rather victories for the entire population of Myanmar and its broader revolution.