Critics grit their teeth as India and China tighten their grip on Myanmar

Mizzima Commentary

As Myanmar junta leader Min Aung Hlaing and Indian PM Narendra Modi walked across the artificial grass laid outside the Hyderabad House on 1 June, it was clear New Delhi was pulling out the stops for an official visit that had supporters and critics in a tizz and analysts emphasizing a pushback against China.

Pomp and pageantry were in abundance in India’s invitation to Myanmar’s leader but one that demonstrated the current Indian government’s concern about a neighbour that is important to it on a geopolitical level and as part of its Act East Policy.

Min Aung Hlaing’s five-day visit from 30 May to 3 June to India has thrown a wrench in the works when it comes to the call by the Myanmar resistance and opposition not to offer legitimacy to a dictator who has blood on his hands in the wake of the 2021 coup that has plunged Myanmar into chaos and ousted its democratically-elected leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

Critics were aghast. The visit represented a highly strategic pivot for Myanmar’s leadership following years of intense global isolation and Western sanctions.

India has offered a handshake to Myanmar’s leader, seemingly putting pragmatism ahead of humanity. This visit matters to Min Aung Hlaing but it also matters to Indian PM Modi, who appears to have used the recent “sham” election in Myanmar as an excuse to engage after several years of not playing ball on a senior leader level. This was Min Aung Hlaing’s first visit abroad since he transitioned from being the military junta chief to a civilian “president”. He last visited India in 2019 in his former capacity as the commander-in-chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces.

Modi told the Myanmar leader that “India remains Myanmar’s trusted neighbour, a reliable partner and steadfast first responder in times of crisis”, Indian foreign ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal said. Modi also “reaffirmed India’s readiness to support peace and dialogue in Myanmar”, Jaiswal added.

New Delhi’s top career diplomat, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, told reporters after the Modi-Min Aung Hlaing meeting that discussions included border security and the impact of the civil war in Myanmar, which borders India’s northeastern states.

“Stability and peace in Myanmar is obviously a major interest for India,” Misri said. “Not just for the security of the northeast and the safety and security of people living along the 1,643-kilometre (1,020-mile) long border that we have with them, but also for our interests – such as connectivity to South East Asia,” he said.

But he also stressed that any solution to the conflict in Myanmar would have to come from its citizens themselves. “Eventually, the difficulties that face Myanmar will have to be sorted out by the people of Myanmar talking amongst themselves,” he said. “This will have to be a Myanmar-led solution and a Myanmar-owned solution.”

Diplomatic breakthrough

For the Myanmar administration, receiving an official state welcome from the world’s largest democracy is seen as a significant diplomatic breakthrough. Former Indian Ambassador to Myanmar, Rajiv Bhatia, told the BBC that the visit “serves as a vital validation of international respectability for Naypyidaw”.

For India, the reception underscores a long-standing foreign policy doctrine that prioritises regional stability, national security, and cross-border commerce over the domestic political architecture of its neighbours.

Min Aung Hlaing’s visit also matters as a way for Naypyidaw to balance its relations with China, another important regional neighbour with heavy interests in Myanmar – with Beijing viewing the territory as a crucial land and fuel pipeline bridge to the Indian Ocean.

Geopolitical reality

Recent India–Myanmar discussions on security, border management, trade, and connectivity underscore a broader geopolitical reality: Myanmar has become one of the most strategically important states in Asia for both India and China. Its location between South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Bay of Bengal makes it a critical arena where the interests of the two Asian powers increasingly intersect.

For India, Myanmar is central to its “Act East Policy” and serves as the only ASEAN member sharing a land border with India. During Min Aung Hlaing’s visit, PM Modi described Myanmar as lying at the convergence of India’s “Neighbourhood First,” “Act East,” and MAHASAGAR regional strategies.

India’s strategic objectives in Myanmar include connecting India’s northeast to Southeast Asian markets; completing the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project linking India’s eastern seaboard to Myanmar and onward to Mizoram; advancing the India–Myanmar–Thailand Trilateral Highway, which would eventually integrate India more deeply into ASEAN supply chains, and enhancing maritime access through Myanmar’s Bay of Bengal coastline.

These connectivity projects are viewed in New Delhi as both economic initiatives and strategic instruments to reduce the isolation of India’s northeast while increasing India’s regional influence.

A critical security partner for India

The talks highlighted Myanmar’s growing importance to India’s security calculations. Modi raised concerns about insurgent groups operating along the India–Myanmar border, refugee flows, cybercrime networks, and cross-border instability stemming from Myanmar’s civil conflict. Myanmar reportedly assured India that its territory would not be used against Indian security interests.

Several factors are driving closer security cooperation, namely the 1,600-kilometre shared border is vulnerable to insurgent movements and smuggling; fighting in Myanmar’s Chin and Sagaing regions directly affects India’s northeastern states; both countries seek greater intelligence sharing and border management cooperation; and maritime security cooperation in the Bay of Bengal has become increasingly important.

India’s continued engagement with Myanmar’s military-quasi civilian regime reflects a calculation that border stability and strategic interests outweigh diplomatic isolation.

Why China sees Myanmar as indispensable

For China, Myanmar offers something equally valuable: direct access to the Indian Ocean.

Through the China–Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), Beijing has invested heavily in infrastructure linking China’s southwestern province of Yunnan to Myanmar’s coast. Myanmar allows China to reduce its dependence on the Strait of Malacca, one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints.

China’s interests include access to the deep-water port of Kyaukpyu on the Bay of Bengal; energy pipelines transporting oil and gas from the Indian Ocean into China; trade routes connecting Yunnan to global markets; and influence over ethnic armed organizations and political actors within Myanmar.

As Myanmar’s civil war continues, Beijing has increasingly acted as a mediator among various armed groups while simultaneously maintaining relations with the military government, preserving its influence regardless of the conflict’s outcome.

China-Myanmar analysts and political observers point out that the Chinese government is now in a position where it can effectively control and manage both the Myanmar government and ethnic armed organizations (EAOs). A political analyst told CNI News Agency that the government, the military, and ethnic armed groups cannot afford to ignore China’s stance, suggesting that Beijing is handling Myanmar through political maneuvering.

“Operation 1027 partly aimed to crack down on online scams (cyber-crime syndicates) that were harming Chinese interests, which is why China subtly gave the green light to the Three Brotherhood Alliance’s offensive,” the analyst said. “However, the Three Brotherhood Alliance achieved unexpected victories, capturing Lashio and Mogok, while the Arakan Army (AA) managed to seize almost the entire Rakhine State. China likely didn’t expect them to achieve that level of success.”

Bridge to South East Asia

Both Asian giants recognize the value of Myanmar.

Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri confirmed on 1 June that both nations agreed to expedite the 1,400-kilometre highway corridor. The project aims to link Manipur in north-eastern India directly to Thailand through Myanmar, unlocking a critical land-based trading vein into South East Asia.

While the geopolitical corridor has faced chronic postponements due to domestic political turmoil and security instability inside Myanmar, New Delhi and Naypyidaw have renewed diplomatic pressure to resolve these bottlenecks.

Alongside the highway, both Modi and Min Aung Hlaing pushed for the swift completion of the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport project to solidify regional supply chains.

Meanwhile, we can expect China to also step in to put more pressure on Naypyidaw for the safety and completion of their projects and investments.

Myanmar occupies a unique geopolitical position between the world’s two most populous countries.

For India, Myanmar is a bridge to South East Asia and a buffer protecting its northeastern frontier. For China, it is a gateway to the Indian Ocean and a critical component of regional connectivity networks. At the same time, some analysts see Myanmar as a potential platform for limited India–China cooperation, particularly in trade and infrastructure development, although competition remains the dominant feature of the relationship.

Competition over critical resources

Myanmar’s strategic value has risen further because of its natural resources. Recent military operations have focused on areas containing major rare-earth deposits near the Chinese border. Reuters reported that Kachin State accounts for roughly half of global heavy rare-earth production, materials essential for electric vehicles, wind turbines, and advanced technologies.

India’s recent discussions with Myanmar also included cooperation in mining and critical minerals, reflecting New Delhi’s desire to diversify access to strategic resources currently dominated by China.

The India–Myanmar security and connectivity discussions demonstrate that Myanmar’s importance extends far beyond bilateral relations. As China seeks secure access to the Indian Ocean and India pursues greater integration with Southeast Asia while protecting its northeastern frontier, Myanmar has become a pivotal state in the emerging Asian strategic landscape. Control of trade corridors, access to critical minerals, border security, and maritime influence in the Bay of Bengal will ensure that Myanmar remains a focal point of both Indian and Chinese strategic planning for years to come.

Opposition dismay over visit

However, Myanmar opposition and resistance groups expressed their dismay over Min Aung Hlaing’s warm reception by India. Myanmar’s opposition National Unity Government (NUG) sent a formal objection letter to India’s foreign minister expressing serious concern over junta leader Min Aung Hlaing’s planned visit to India.

The letter was sent on 27 May by NUG Foreign Minister Zin Mar Aung. According to the letter, the NUG said it was “deeply concerned” by reports regarding the visit of “terrorist junta leader Min Aung Hlaing” to India, describing the situation as alarming for the people of Myanmar.

The NUG pointed out that since the 2021 military coup, Myanmar has been suffering from prolonged conflict, instability and a severe humanitarian crisis. Under such circumstances, it urged India not to engage in any action that could be interpreted as granting political legitimacy to the military regime.

The letter also stated that any election organized under the junta’s control could never override the legitimacy of Myanmar’s 2020 general election and called on India not to support any electoral process that would prolong military dictatorship.

The NUG emphasized that India has long upheld democratic governance, rule of law and regional stability, and urged the Indian government to carefully consider the consequences of engaging with a regime accused of normalizing military rule in Myanmar.

It also appealed to India not to encourage what it described as an unconstitutional seizure of power and an illegitimate political system established through force.

The letter further stated that the long-standing friendship between Myanmar and India is rooted not only in state-to-state relations but also in deep ties between the two peoples, adding that a sustainable partnership can only be built on democratic values and respect for the will of the people.

The NUG urged India to continue engaging with Myanmar in ways that prioritize democracy, peace, human rights and the aspirations of the Myanmar people, stating that standing with the people of Myanmar during this critical period would help strengthen future bilateral relations between the two countries.

Mark Farmaner, the director of the Burma Campaign UK, told The Independent newspaper that Mr Modi’s current policy is driven by a desire to counter China’s influence, but that New Delhi would be better served in the long run by supporting a democratic Myanmar which might be less dependent on Beijing.

“Modi will be calculating that being the first to invite general Min Aung Hlaing since he appointed himself president will buy more goodwill and influence for India,” he said. “India’s current approach to Myanmar has doomed them to play second fiddle to China, as India can’t compete economically or politically with China and its UN Security Council seat and global clout.”

Meanwhile, the Chin Human Rights Organization stressed that India often describes itself as the world’s largest democracy and a natural partner of democratic movements across the globe. Yet, in Myanmar, New Delhi appears increasingly willing to embrace a military regime accused of war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide, while overlooking the democratic aspirations of millions of people who overwhelmingly expressed their will in the 2020 elections.

“This is not simply a question of diplomacy. It is a question of values, legitimacy, and the kind of future India wishes to support in its neighborhood. The people of Myanmar have not stopped extending their hand. The question is whether anyone is willing to take it,” the NGO said.

Sources: Mizzima, AFP, Press Information Bureau, The Nation, The Times of India, Reuters