China’s Strategic Calculus in Myanmar: Controlled Instability Over Annexation and Total Control

Commentary

The question of whether China prefers a fragmented Myanmar over annexation reveals a complex interplay of geopolitical pragmatism, economic interests, and local resistance dynamics. Contrary to claims that Beijing seeks chaos, a closer examination suggests China aims to maintain influence without assuming the burdens of governance. However, this carefully calibrated approach is facing growing challenges as Myanmar’s conflict intensifies and public sentiment shifts.

Dual-Track Engagement: Balancing the Junta and Ethnic Armed Organizations