ACLED warns fighting likely to intensify in central Myanmar over next six months

Mizzima

Fighting in Myanmar is likely to intensify across Sagaing, Magway and Mandalay regions over the next six months as the military shifts more forces toward the country’s centre and targets weakened and fragmented resistance groups, conflict monitor Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) said in a new outlook.

Myanmar has been engulfed in conflict since the military seized power in a February 2021 coup, prompting armed resistance from newly formed People’s Defense Forces alongside long-established ethnic armed organizations.

ACLED said in its 6 August report that ceasefires and reduced fighting with some ethnic armed organizations could allow the military to redeploy troops from former conflict zones into central Myanmar, where large numbers of post-coup resistance forces continue to operate.

Sagaing, Magway and Mandalay already ranked first, second and third respectively for their share of political violence events recorded by ACLED between January and July 2026. The same three regions also held the top positions during the second half of 2025.