Vital Myanmar-China trade route under ethnic Kokang Chinese MNDAA control?

A source in the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) told DVB that the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) asked KIA forces to relocate from checkpoints in northern Shan State to a distance of five miles (8 km) from the Lashio–Muse road so that the MNDAA can control the entire 108-mile (174 km) Myanmar-China trade route.

The KIA source added that the MNDAA, an ethnic armed group representing the Kokang Chinese in Myanmar, is acting at the behest of China’s government in Beijing. It allegedly seeks to clear the vital Myanmar–China trade route from the border town of Ruili all the way to Mandalay, Myanmar’s second-largest city, of all other armed groups.

Naw Bu, the spokesperson for the ethnic Kachin KIA, denied that the MNDAA ordered its forces to retreat from the Lashio-Muse road in an interview with DVB. The KIA seized Namhpatkar village in Kutkai Township, 27 miles (43 km) north of Kutkai town, in January 2024.

Lway Yay Oo, the spokesperson for the ethnic Palaung armed group Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), told DVB that it met for talks with the MNDAA in Laukkai, the capital of the Kokang Self-Administered Zone (SAZ) on March 17 – two days after the MNDAA seized full control of Kutkai, located on the Lashio-Muse road 47 miles (75 km) north of Lashio, from the TNLA.

Laukkai, seized by the MNDAA on Jan. 4, 2024, is located 117 miles (188 km) northeast of the regional capital Lashio.

A TNLA member told DVB on March 17 that fighting in Kutkai has ended. A source in the TNLA told DVB on March 16 that its members were given orders from commanding officers to withdraw from Kutkai to Namhkam, located 50 miles north (80 km) of Kutkai, and not to return fire at the MNDAA.

Kutkai was seized by the TNLA and the MNDAA in 2024 after they united to launch an offensive called “Operation 1027” against regime forces on Oct. 27, 2023.

A Lashio resident told DVB on the condition of anonymity that the MNDAA and representatives from the regime in Naypyidaw met on March 16 in Lashio and agreed to reopen the Lashio-Muse road.

Residents living in towns along the road told DVB that the MNDAA reopened it immediately after the TNLA withdrew its forces. It had been closed when fighting began in Kutkai last month.

Zin Yaw, a former soldier who joined the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) following the 2021 military coup, told DVB that regime forces want the road cleared. “The regime has benefited from the MNDAA–TNLA conflict,” he added.

A military analyst told DVB on the condition of anonymity that the MNDAA will likely seize Namtu and Namhkam from the TNLA and hand them over to regime control as it did with Lashio last April after it signed a Chinese-brokered ceasefire in January 2025.

Namtu, located 42-104 miles (67-167 km) north of Lashio, was seized by the TNLA following the launch of “Operation 1027” in 2023.

The analyst added that the MNDAA is expected to drive out the ethnic Rakhine armed group Arakan Army (AA) from northern Shan State, where it had been actively supporting the MNDAA and TNLA in “Operation 1027” before it launched its own offensive in Arakan State on Nov. 13, 2023.

An MNDAA source told DVB on the condition of anonymity that its ethnic Kokang armed forces will continue to seize territory until it controls up to 12 miles (19 km) north of Kutkai.